Dive Brief:
- Iconic stadiums, including U.S. venues set to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup games, face mounting climate-related risks that could trigger substantial financial losses by 2050, new data from Climate X shows.
- The climate risk data analytics company analyzed 12 U.S. venues scheduled to host matches for the 2026 FIFA Word Cup and the 25 largest soccer venues by capacity in Europe, assessing exposure to 10 climate hazards — such as flooding, extreme heat and drought — under a high-emissions scenario. Projected losses across all 37 venues could rise from $130 million in 2020 to $800 million by mid-century, Climate X says.
- Surface flooding and extreme heat emerged as the most widespread risks, with certain venues experiencing combined yearly losses equivalent to nearly 2% of their present-day replacement value, Climate X says. Exposure to “severe” hazards is most concentrated in the U.S., where four of the six most at-risk venues are located, according to a Climate X report released Tuesday.
Dive Insight:
Climate X ranked each stadium’s risk based on its total loss in dollars and percentages, comparing projected damages from climate hazards with the stadium’s current replacement cost and its known vulnerabilities, it said in a news release Tuesday. Estimated losses are disproportionately concentrated in the top three venues, accounting for approximately 40% of total losses projected for 2050, according to the report released Tuesday.
The study makes assessments of physical hazards subjected to commercial infrastructure and estimates financial losses between now and 2050 under a climate modeling pathway developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to estimate potential future climate conditions based on greenhouse gas emissions.
Exposure to severe hazards was found to be more concentrated in the U.S., particularly in coastal or high-heat areas, the study says. Florida emerged as a “high-risk hotspot,” home to three of the six most exposed stadiums by 2050, Climate X says. Inter&Co Stadium and Camping World Stadium, both in Orlando, Florida, ranked highest for hazard exposure with a score of 4 on Climate X’s scale. Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia and TQL Stadium in Cincinnati followed, each with a score of 3, the study says.
Hard Rock Cafe stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, also had a score of 4, when based on a scenario of hazard exposure intensifying by 2050, the study found.
The rankings based on total loss percentage differed from those based on highest hazards, suggesting that vulnerability and other factors, such as structural resilience, influence financial loss more than just hazard exposure. The Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, was the third most vulnerable on that measure, with a total loss percentage of 5.22%.
Climate X says it modeled physical hazards on its climate risk analytics platform, Spectra, which aims to quantify the potential financial impact of climate change on assets and portfolios.
“This data is a stark reminder of the mounting threats climate change poses to the infrastructure underpinning global events,” Climate X CEO Lukky Ahmed said in a statement. “As we celebrate the world’s love for [soccer], we must also confront the sobering reality that some of the sport’s most cherished venues are at risk. Stakeholders must take immediate action to safeguard these assets and ensure the sustainability of future events.”
